Analysis

Market Analysis

Public Market Analysis (PMA) screening tool. Click the map to place a site, choose a buffer radius, and receive a scored feasibility assessment using Census ACS, HUD LIHTC, and TIGERweb data — no API key required. Scores cover vacancy, income qualification, commuting patterns, transit access, schools, competitive supply, and development opportunity factors.

CHFA Market Study Guide — Appendix A, 2025-26 QAP: "Radius boundaries are not allowed. The market boundary must include entire census tracts." This tool uses a radius as a first-pass screening proxy. For an actual CHFA submittal, the Primary Market Area must be justified by municipal/county/tract boundaries, natural barriers, physical features such as interstate highways, socioeconomic characteristics, and school district boundaries. Read the QAP →

Screening tool only. Scores are for early-stage site identification using public data. They are not a substitute for a formal CHFA-required PMA, independent market study, or professional underwriting.

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Data quality, sources & integrations — click to expand provenance for this analysis

Rent triangulation — existing vs. asking

Three rent measurements for the active jurisdiction so you can see which figure applies to which question (underwriting, cost-burden math, or what a new tenant pays).

Primary Market Area (PMA) Delineation

Define the PMA boundary by selecting whole census tracts — the only shape CHFA's Market Study Guide (Appendix A) accepts. Click the map to place a site, curate the auto-selected tract set using natural barriers, school districts, jurisdictional lines, or commute sheds, and run the analysis. Other delineation methods (Hybrid, Tract-based, Buffer) remain available for screening only.

Whole-tract PMA picker. Click the map to set a site, then click individual census tracts to add or remove them from the Primary Market Area. Tracts within ~4 miles of the site are pre-selected as a starting set — curate this set using natural barriers, school districts, jurisdictional lines, or commute sheds before submitting. ACS population and household totals are aggregated from the selected tract GEOIDs.

Site Score

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Overall PMA Score (0–100)

Relative indicator only — not a CHFA threshold

Select a site to begin

— ACS tracts in buffer

PMA Site Summary

Snapshot of what the PMA boundary contains. Use this card to sanity-check the analysis before reading scores.

Boundary method: —
Commute context: Off — does not change PMA scores or tract selection
Census tracts: —
Housing units in buffer: —
Rental households: —
Severe cost-burden (renters): —
Poverty rate: —
Unemployment rate: —
Nearest transit: —
Nearest grocery: —
Nearest healthcare: —
Nearest school: —
Nearest park: —

Methodology & rural-area fallback

Boundary: A circular buffer around the placed site marker. Industry-standard PMA studies use commuting-shed + barrier analysis; the circular buffer is a screening simplification, not a substitute for a NH&RA/Novogradac delineation.

Census tracts: 2020 TIGER tract polygons whose centroid falls inside the buffer. Tract metrics from ACS 5-Year DP04 are population-weighted to derive PMA-level housing-unit and renter-household totals.

Transit: Distance reported is to the nearest fixed-route stop (RTD/CDOT GTFS for Front Range; OpenStreetMap public_transport=stop_position elsewhere). In rural areas where fixed-route service is sparse, the fallback uses any OSM-tagged transit stop within the OSM dataset — these may include flag stops or call-a-ride pickup points that don't earn CHFA TOD points but still represent real transit access. The TOD panel above applies the ½-mile fixed-route standard strictly.

Amenity distances: Straight-line (haversine) distance to the nearest tagged amenity. Not a walk- or drive-time estimate. Distances over the buffer radius indicate the amenity is outside the PMA but may still serve the site.

Limits: Buffer-based screening misses commuting-shed cuts (a 5-mile buffer can cross a 4-lane state highway that no LIHTC tenant would walk across). Treat this card as a high-signal pre-screen, not a market study.

Dimension Scores

Place a site marker to see dimension scores.

Risk Flags

No flags computed yet.

Data Coverage

Run analysis to see data coverage.

LIHTC Supply in Buffer

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LIHTC projects

HUD LIHTC DB

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Capture rate (existing)

HUD · ACS 2023

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Renter households

ACS 2023

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In Prop 123 jurisdictions

DOLA Prop 123

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Most recent LIHTC allocation

HUD YR_ALLOC / YR_PIS

Nearby LIHTC outside the PMA

within of the site

Properties beyond the PMA boundary but within the chosen radius — for regional comparable deals and recent-vintage benchmarks. Sorted nearest first; not included in capture-rate or competitive-supply scoring.

Project	City	Distance	YR_PIS	Units (LI)	Credit
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Capture-rate Simulator

Enter proposed unit count and AMI mix to simulate capture rate (CHFA-style).

Total proposed units

Units @ 30% AMI

Units @ 40% AMI

Units @ 50% AMI

Units @ 60% AMI

Units @ 80% AMI

Units @ 90% AMI (workforce / above-LIHTC)

Units @ 110% AMI (Prop 123 workforce)

Units @ 120% AMI (CHFA upper band)

Place a site to run simulator.

Scenario Analysis

What-if modeling: compare score outcomes for different unit counts.

Full Scenario Builder →

Run analysis to compare scenarios.

Mortgage Credit Access

Place a site to load mortgage credit context.

Peer Benchmarking

Compare this site to ~50 known Colorado LIHTC projects.

Run analysis to see benchmarking.

Competitive Pipeline

LIHTC projects in buffer classified by estimated development stage.

Run analysis to see pipeline.

Export

When to commission a professional market study Beyond screening

This page is a screening tool. The public data it reads (ACS, HUD CHAS, LIHTC database, LEHD, FRED) is broad-coverage but lags 1-5 years and isn't structured for deal-level underwriting. At certain deal sizes, AMI depths, or competitive contexts, the screening reaches diminishing returns. The thresholds below are guidance, not policy.

Suggested escalation triggers →

Deal size ≥ 60 units: CHFA generally requires a third-party market study at the application stage. Don't wait until the application deadline to commission it.
Deep affordability (>50% of units below 50% AMI): Capture-rate sensitivity matters more — public-data ratios understate competitive pressure in tight income bands.
Tight market (vacancy < 3% AND existing LIHTC saturation in buffer): Absorption forecasting needs lease-up data from comparable nearby projects, not ACS snapshots.
Rural / mountain markets: ACS small-sample noise + 2nd-home inventory distortion make public data unreliable. CoStar / Yardi don't cover these well either — a local broker or appraiser tour is usually the right next step.
First-time developer in this submarket: Investor pricing premium without a third-party study can be 3-5¢/credit — easily worth the study cost on a deal over ~$1M annual credit.

Typical market-study providers in CO: Allen & Associates, Capital Markets Group, Novogradac, RKG Associates. CHFA maintains an approved-vendor list. Expect $15K–$40K depending on submarket complexity and units.

Subscription data: CoStar MultifamilyTrack, Yardi Matrix, and RealPage MTM cover urban/suburban CO down to submarket level ($5K-$25K/year per market). Not useful for rural sites.

CHFA PMA Requirements & Checklist

A Primary Market Area (PMA) is the census-tract-based geography from which a proposed development is expected to draw most of its tenants. CHFA requires PMA approval before a market study begins for any LIHTC application in Colorado.

CHFA PMA Requirements Summary

Per CHFA's Qualified Allocation Plan and Market Study Guide:

Census-tract geography — The PMA must be defined as specific census tracts most likely to supply tenants to the proposed project.
CHFA pre-approval required — A CHFA-approved market analyst must consult with CHFA and obtain PMA boundary approval before the market study begins.
Engagement letter — Must include the proposed PMA with a detailed census tract list.
Market study must analyze:
- Income-qualified demand and capture rates (should be as low as possible)
- Evidence the project will not negatively impact existing LIHTC properties in the PMA
- Achievable rents and realistic absorption projections

Note: This tool assists with preliminary PMA research and does not replace formal CHFA PMA approval or review by a CHFA-approved market analyst.

PMA Definition Workflow

Site Selection

Identify proposed development site and approximate service area.

Engage Analyst

Retain a CHFA-approved market analyst to propose PMA census tracts.

CHFA PMA Approval

Analyst submits proposed census tract list to CHFA for review and approval.

Market Study

Analyst conducts full study within the approved PMA: demand, capture rate, competitive impact, rents, absorption.

Application

Submit LIHTC application with approved PMA, market study, and engagement letter.

This tool automates: tract selection by radius or drive-time, demographic scoring, competitive LIHTC overlay, and capture rate estimation. It does not replace CHFA-approved analyst review or formal CHFA PMA approval.

CHFA PMA Checklist

Track your LIHTC application PMA progress. Check items as you complete them.

Census tracts selected and justified Define the specific census tracts that form the PMA boundary.
CHFA-approved market analyst engaged Retain an analyst from the CHFA-approved list before beginning the study.
PMA boundary approved by CHFA Analyst submits census tract list to CHFA; receive written approval before study begins.
Income-qualified demand analysis complete Document households at each AMI tier within the PMA.
Capture rate calculated Capture rate = proposed units ÷ income-qualified renter households. Should be as low as possible.
Competitive property impact assessed Evaluate existing LIHTC properties in the PMA — confirm project will not cause material vacancy.
Achievable rent analysis complete Document market-achievable rents relative to AMI-restricted rent limits.
Absorption projection documented Provide realistic lease-up timeline based on comparable projects in the market.

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