Projection Scenario Builder
Create and compare demographic growth scenarios through 2050 using the cohort-component model. Adjust fertility, migration, and mortality assumptions — then save custom scenarios for later comparison.
Screening tool only. Projections are illustrative planning estimates based on public DOLA and Census data. They are not certified forecasts and do not substitute for a formal housing needs study or CHFA-required analysis.
Counties use DOLA Colorado State Demography Office single-year-of-age population pyramids. Incorporated places and Census-Designated Places (CDPs / unincorporated communities) use the containing county's pyramid, scaled down by the sub-county's share of county population (ACS B01003). The downscaling preserves the age and sex distribution of the surrounding county — appropriate for most Colorado sub-county geographies but may understate the youth/working-age skew in college towns and resort areas. The headship rate (0.38) and target vacancy (5%) apply identically.
Model assumptions & provenance
- Base population
- DOLA SYA 2024 vintage — county-level single-year-of-age estimates
- Headship rate
- 0.38 (fixed) — national ACS 5-yr estimate; may not reflect local conditions
- Vacancy target
- 5.0% (fixed) — planning-level assumption; actual vacancy varies by market
- Scenario presets
- COHO-defined presets (fertility ×, mortality ×, net migration); not derived from DOLA or FRED forecasts
- Migration distribution
- Age-distributed using national US proportions; not county-calibrated
- Model type
- Modeled — cohort-component projection; outputs are illustrative estimates, not certified forecasts
Projection Results: Housing Units Needed (2024–2050)
Detailed Annual Projections
| Year | Population | Households | Units Needed (Baseline) | Units Needed (Low) | Units Needed (High) | Units Needed (Custom) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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