COHO Analytics provides data-driven research tools. Analysis represents independent research using public datasets. Not financial or legal advice. Screening tool only — map overlays, KPI cards, and market metrics are for early-stage identification. They do not replace a formal CHFA-required PMA or independent due diligence.
Colorado Market Deep Dive
Colorado
Colorado Affordable Housing Market Analysis
Comprehensive analysis of DDAs, QCTs, LIHTC projects, market dynamics, concessions, foreclosures, and comparative performance
This page focuses exclusively on Colorado. Use the interactive map to visualise LIHTC projects alongside Qualified Census Tracts (QCT) and Difficult Development Areas (DDA) — the HUD overlays that determine credit boost eligibility. Scroll down for county-level market metrics, CAR market reports, and Proposition 123 commitment data. Start with the map to understand geography, then use the KPI cards and charts to quantify need and opportunity.
June 2026 Read — Cooling Prices, Tariff Pressure on Supply
The Federal Housing Finance Agency's Colorado House Price Index (FHFA series COSTHPI) was down roughly −2.4% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026 — one of the largest declines in the country — reflecting a Front Range market that has been correcting since mortgage rates peaked. At the same time, tariffs on construction materials announced earlier in 2026 (10–50% on selected categories) are flowing into hard-cost estimates and slowing the development pipeline. Commentary from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and the Bell Policy Center notes that new affordable-housing supply in Colorado is decelerating even as demand stays high. The takeaway for site-level work: treat any pro-forma financial model built before the tariffs as out of date, and re-run deals against today's hard-cost assumptions before assuming that a rebound in tax-credit pricing covers the gap.
This page provides a comprehensive, data-driven look at Colorado's affordable-housing landscape.
Use the tabs below to explore AMI gap analysis by county, Colorado-vs-national market comparisons,
LIHTC policy scenarios, and market-trend indicators including concessions, foreclosures, and builder confidence.
Explore Area Median Income limits and the gap between affordable-unit supply and household demand across Colorado counties.
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Colorado vs National
Compare Colorado's LIHTC allocation, vacancy rates, rent growth, and market performance against other states and national averages.
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Market Conditions
Explore LIHTC policy scenarios — basis boost, per-capita increases, zoning reform, and rural focus — and compare projected unit production and household impact.
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Market Trends
Review concessions, foreclosure filings, builder confidence, and other leading indicators shaping Colorado's housing market outlook.
Interactive Map: DDAs, QCTs & LIHTC Projects
Zoomable Colorado-only map with counties, places, LIHTC projects (CHFA live — 926 projects through 2025), and HUD 2026 QCT/DDA overlays.
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DDA Zones — 30% basis boost
QCT Zones — 30% basis boost
LIHTC Projects — CHFA HousingTaxCreditProperties live feed (926 through 2025)
Context: In Denver, a single person making $31.88/hour ($66,300 annually) is considered "low income" at 80% AMI. This creates significant affordable housing demand even among working professionals.
Colorado Housing Need by AMI Level
Estimated households vs. available units
Chart data is available in the surrounding text and data tables on this page.
Metro Denver reached 7.6% vacancy in Q4 2025—the highest rate in 16 years—with concessions averaging $169 per month (9.5% of gross rent), equivalent to 4-5 weeks of free rent. This represents the highest concession level in the 21-year history of Apartment Insights tracking.
Impact: New luxury properties offering up to 3 months free rent, creating downward pressure on older Class B/C properties throughout the metro.
Denver Metro Concession Trends
Average monthly concession value 2022-2025 · STATIC · AAMD Q4 2025 series
Chart data is available in the surrounding text and data tables on this page.
Current statewide mortgage-performance indicators · RAW · FHFA NMDB · chart at left carries numeric trend
Overall Risk Level
LOW
FHFA NMDB shows a low statewide foreclosure-process share.
✓ Foreclosure Process
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✓ Employment
Unemployment at 3.7% (BLS LAUS statewide avg)
⚠ Lead Indicator
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RAW · data-derived summary from FHFA NMDB statewide mortgage performance · last verified 2026-07-17 · review by 2026-10-17
Statewide Signal: Low Foreclosure-Process Share
FHFA NMDB statewide mortgage-performance data show a low foreclosure-process share in Colorado. This fallback source is not county public-trustee filing data.
Method note: DOLA county-level public-trustee NED reports remain the preferred source if a current fetchable publication returns; until then, this page uses FHFA's statewide quarterly mortgage-performance series.
Consumer Confidence & Market Sentiment
Colorado Housing Market Confidence
Builder + buyer sentiment · STATIC · NAHB HMI does not publish a free public API
The NAHB / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is the standard barometer of US builder sentiment. A reading above 50 means builders see good conditions; below 50 means poor. The series is published monthly but is paywalled behind NAHB membership and is not available via a free public feed.
At time of last review, the national HMI sat in the low-to-mid 40s — consistent with elevated mortgage rates, soft buyer traffic, and the concession environment described above. Builders in mountain-west markets (including Colorado) typically track 2–4 points below the national index in periods of high construction wage pressure.
Balanced market continuing (low NAHB HMI signals constrained new builds)
New construction down materially (Census BPS permits)
Modest price appreciation expected as supply absorbs
Buyers retain negotiating power while concessions stay elevated
LIHTC Historical Allocations (2010–2026)
Annual low-income housing tax credit units placed in service — Colorado
Annual LIHTC allocation counts are shown in the bar chart above.
Affordability Metrics
— per-county ratios
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Market Health Composite
— 0-100 per county
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Colorado vs National
How Colorado stacks up on LIHTC allocation, vacancy, rent growth, credit pricing,
and employment. Macro context (2024 oversupply, 40% cost inflation since 2019,
rising interest rates) is documented in the per-card source links below.
Key Metrics: Colorado vs U.S. Average
Statewide point-in-time benchmarks. Source links on each card.
Disclaimer: This analysis aggregates data from multiple authoritative sources for informational purposes. Market conditions change rapidly. Developers and investors should conduct independent due diligence, verify current pricing and incentives, and consult qualified professionals for project-specific guidance. DDA/QCT designations shown are based on 2026 HUD designations effective January 1, 2026.
Proposition 123 — Local Government Commitments
Jurisdictions that have filed a Local Government Affordable Housing Commitment. Use the “Prop 123 jurisdictions” layer on the map to visualize coverage.
Data source: Colorado Department of Local Affairs (DOLA) / Division of Housing. Learn more:
cdola.colorado.gov/prop123
Jurisdiction
Type
Status
Commitment Date
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Local file fallback: data/prop123_jurisdictions.json
Colorado Market Conditions — CAR
Statewide metrics from the Colorado Association of REALTORS monthly market report.
Origination volume, denial rates, and multifamily mortgage activity from the federal Home Mortgage
Disclosure Act database — the gold-standard public source for credit access at county level.
A rising denial rate or falling origination count signals tightening credit, which precedes a
slowdown in multifamily starts and reduced demand for LIHTC bond execution.
Top 10 Counties by Origination Volume (latest year)
Source: CFPB HMDA Data Browser.
Denial rate = denials / (originations + approved-not-accepted + denials). Mean loan amount is
sum / count (true median requires record-level data). Multifamily = HMDA dwelling-category
"Multifamily:Site-Built" — directly LIHTC-adjacent. Vintages 2018-current.
Geography of Housing Affordability
Statewide context for where affordability pressures are most acute — from tract-level rent burdens to county-level housing gaps.
Affordability Ratio Map — Gross Rent as % of Income
Each dot represents a Colorado census tract, colored by how much of median household income goes to gross rent.
Tracts in red spend more than half their income on housing — a signal of severe affordability stress.
Cost Burden Map — Share of Renters Paying >30% of Income
County-level map showing the proportion of renter households spending more than 30% of income on housing costs.
Counties shaded darker have a higher share of cost-burdened renters, indicating a greater need for affordable units.
AMI Gap — Top 10 Counties by Unmet Affordable Housing Need
Counties ranked by the gap between renter households earning at or below 50% AMI and the number of units priced
affordable at that level. A negative gap means supply falls short of demand — larger negative numbers indicate greater need.
County
Gap (units)
Supply coverage
Notes
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Data Sources & Methodology
ACS 5-year tract-level estimates — American Community Survey (U.S. Census Bureau), 2023 5-year estimates. Fields used: median gross rent, median household income, cost burden rate. 1,447 Colorado census tracts.
CHAS data (HUD) — HUD Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy, 2018–2022 5-year estimates (most recent release, Dec 2025). County-level counts of renter households by AMI tier and cost-burden status.
AMI gap calculations — Derived from HUD Fair Market Rents (FY2025) and Area Median Income income limits, compared against ACS-estimated household income distributions. Gap = affordable units supply minus households at each AMI threshold.
County boundaries — U.S. Census Bureau TIGER/Line 2024 county boundary files for Colorado.
Colorado's LIHTC market sits in the high-eight-figure range of annual federal+state credit allocations across the active CHFA-administered portfolio. The Denver-Aurora-Lakewood metro accounts for the majority of statewide units, with significant development in Colorado Springs, Fort Collins, Boulder, and Pueblo. Live counts above; metro-level breakdown below comes directly from the CHFA portfolio.
Colorado Credit Pricing Forecast
Projected 9% credit pricing with 95% confidence intervals · QUAL · modeled from Novogradac + CHFA history
Chart data is available in the surrounding text and data tables on this page.
Housing Starts Forecast
Quarterly multifamily housing starts projection · QUAL · modeled from Census BPS + DOLA projections
Chart data is available in the surrounding text and data tables on this page.
Key Findings
QUAL · editorial synthesis of CHFA QAP + Novogradac pricing trend + CHFA portfolio data
Credit pricing has hovered in the mid-$0.80s through 2026 — see Novogradac pricing notes for current quarterly read
Housing starts continue to track Front Range population growth — see Census BPS permits
Denver metro consistently captures the majority share of statewide LIHTC units (live breakdown in table above)
Rural set-aside is heavily oversubscribed at most rounds (CHFA round reports document the gap)
Transit-oriented development receives scoring premium in the 2026 QAP
Metro Area Breakdown
LIVE · aggregated from CHFA HousingTaxCreditProperties by county / metro grouping. Updates when CHFA refreshes the ArcGIS service.
Metro Area
Properties
Total Units
LI Units
% of LI Units
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CHFA 2026 Priorities
STATIC · summary of the CHFA 2026 QAP; refer to the PDF for exact dollar set-asides each cycle
The Colorado Housing and Finance Authority's 2026 QAP highlights:
Transit-Oriented Development: Projects within ½ mile of light rail or rapid bus transit receive a scoring advantage
Rural Housing: Dedicated rural set-aside with priority for towns under 20,000 population
Extremely Low Income Targeting: Bonus for projects serving 30% AMI households
Preservation: Set-aside reserved for acquisition/rehab of at-risk properties
Green Building: Enterprise Green Communities certification required for all 9% deals